US dollar fundamentals

US dollar fundamentals – Week of Oct 11, 2026

Automatic weekly summary of the news that moves the dollar and the markets.

· 14 events

🇺🇸 US holiday

Bank Holiday

Public holiday in the United States: US markets are closed or trade on a shortened schedule.

Reading for the dollar

With fewer participants, the dollar (DXY) usually barely moves and liquidity is thin; any moves can be erratic and unreliable.

Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bullish for the dollar

Existing Home Sales

Measures the number of residential buildings sold during the previous month, reflecting the health of the housing sector.

Reading for the dollar

The 3.99M figure beat the 3.95M forecast, suggesting resilience in the housing market despite interest rates.

ActualForecastPrevious
3.99M3.95M3.93M
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bullish for the dollar

Core CPI m/m

Measures the change in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy to identify persistent inflationary trends.

Reading for the dollar

The 0.3% figure was higher than the expected 0.2%, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive policies.

ActualForecastPrevious
0.3%0.2%0.3%
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bullish for the dollar

Core CPI y/y

Measures the change in consumer prices over the last 12 months, excluding volatile sectors.

Reading for the dollar

At 2.6% versus the 2.5% expected, core inflation shows an acceleration that favors the dollar.

ActualForecastPrevious
2.6%2.5%2.4%
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bullish for the dollar

CPI m/m

The primary indicator for measuring inflation and changes in purchasing trends in the United States.

Reading for the dollar

The 0.6% figure met expectations, but being high, it confirms that the cost of living continues to rise.

ActualForecastPrevious
0.6%0.6%0.4%
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bullish for the dollar

CPI y/y

Represents the accumulated inflation rate over one year for the average consumer.

Reading for the dollar

The increase to 3.7% (forecast 3.6%) indicates stickier inflation than desired, strengthening the high-rates argument.

ActualForecastPrevious
3.7%3.6%3.4%
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bullish for the dollar

Core PPI m/m

Measures the change in selling prices by producers, excluding food and energy; it is a leading indicator for CPI.

Reading for the dollar

The jump to 0.7% compared to the 0.3% forecast is a strong inflationary surprise that benefits the dollar.

ActualForecastPrevious
0.7%0.3%0.2%
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bullish for the dollar

Core Retail Sales m/m

Measures the total value of retail sales excluding automobiles, reflecting consumer spending.

Reading for the dollar

The 0.9% figure beat the 0.6% expected, demonstrating that private consumption remains robust despite prices.

ActualForecastPrevious
0.9%0.6%1.4%
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bullish for the dollar

PPI m/m

Measures inflation from the perspective of companies that manufacture goods.

Reading for the dollar

A figure much higher than expected (1.3% vs 0.6%) suggests that producers will pass costs to the final consumer soon.

ActualForecastPrevious
1.3%0.6%0.5%
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bullish for the dollar

Retail Sales m/m

The primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

Reading for the dollar

The actual 0.8% beat the forecast 0.3%, confirming an economy that is not yet cooling down.

ActualForecastPrevious
0.8%0.3%1.3%
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bearish for the dollar

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Survey of manufacturers about general economic conditions in the Philadelphia district.

Reading for the dollar

The 20.9 figure was lower than the expected 28.2, indicating a slowdown in the regional manufacturing sector.

ActualForecastPrevious
20.928.237.8
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)No data / neutral

Unemployment Claims

Measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

Reading for the dollar

The 199K figure was identical to the forecast, showing extreme stability in the labor market.

ActualForecastPrevious
199K199K198K
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)No data / neutral

Crude Oil Inventories

Measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms.

Reading for the dollar

A massive drop of -8.557M barrels suggests very strong demand or lower supply, which can influence energy inflation.

ActualForecastPrevious
-8.557M0.2M-3.186M
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)No data / neutral

Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks

Public speech by a high-ranking Federal Reserve official that may provide clues about the future of interest rates.

Reading for the dollar

As a qualitative event, the impact depends on the tone (hawkish or dovish) used regarding inflation.

Economic calendar

Previous weeks

Informational content. Not investment advice.