Automatic weekly summary of the news that moves the dollar and the markets.
· 16 events
Measures the level of consumer optimism regarding economic activity and national financial health.
Reading for the dollar
The actual figure (81.9) was significantly lower than expected (89.2), indicating consumer pessimism that typically weakens the dollar.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 81.9 | 89.2 | 88.6 |
Reports the number of job openings available, excluding the farming sector, reflecting labor demand.
Reading for the dollar
The actual figure (7.079M) came in below forecast, suggesting a cooling labor market that puts downward pressure on the USD.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 7.079M | 7.23M | 7.335M |
Estimates the monthly change in private non-farm employment, serving as a prelude to the official government report.
Reading for the dollar
The 90K print beat the 73K forecast, showing stronger private job creation than expected, which is positive for the dollar.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 90K | 73K | 36K |
Measures the change in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy; it is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
Reading for the dollar
At 0.2%, the figure was lower than the 0.3% expected, suggesting slightly more controlled inflation and reducing pressure to hike rates.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
The broadest measure of economic activity and the overall health of the U.S. economy.
Reading for the dollar
The final figure of 2.2% exceeded the 1.5% expectation, showing a more resilient economy than anticipated, favoring the dollar.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.5% |
Reflects the annualized change in the prices of all goods and services included in the GDP.
Reading for the dollar
With no actual data yet, a value above 6.4% would be inflationary and bullish, while a lower value would be bearish for the USD.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| — | 6.4% | 6.4% |
Measures the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in commercial inventory.
Reading for the dollar
The 0.922M increase versus the expected -0.7M drop suggests lower demand or oversupply, indirectly impacting inflation.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 0.922M | -0.7M | 2.969M |
Public intervention by the executive that may contain clues about fiscal or trade policy.
Reading for the dollar
Impact depends on the tone; comments on tariffs or public spending typically generate high volatility in the dollar.
Statements from a member of the committee that decides U.S. interest rates.
Reading for the dollar
Interpretation depends on whether the stance is hawkish (favoring high rates/strong dollar) or dovish (favoring low rates/weak dollar).
Measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
Reading for the dollar
The 197K figure was better (lower) than expected, indicating a robust labor market and is positive for the dollar.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 197K | 201K | 198K |
Survey of purchasing managers regarding conditions in the manufacturing sector.
Reading for the dollar
The actual data (55.9) beat the previous reading but missed the forecast (56.9), showing expansion but at a slower pace than projected.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 55.9 | 56.9 | 53.9 |
Comments from a voting member of the Federal Reserve on monetary policy.
Reading for the dollar
Markets look for signals regarding the magnitude of upcoming interest rate moves.
Key indicator of economic health based on national manufacturing sector activity.
Reading for the dollar
The 54.5 came in slightly below the 54.8 expected, suggesting sector growth is somewhat slower than anticipated.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 54.5 | 54.8 | 54.6 |
Measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, an early indicator of wage inflation.
Reading for the dollar
The 0.1% was lower than the 0.3% expected, which reduces inflationary pressures and may weaken the dollar.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
The most important U.S. employment data, measuring the change in the number of employed people during the previous month.
Reading for the dollar
The actual figure (29K) was a massive disappointment compared to the 89K expected, indicating severe weakness in the labor market and being very bearish for the USD.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 29K | 89K | 133K |
Percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment.
Reading for the dollar
The increase to 4.2% versus the 4.1% expected reinforces the signal of economic cooling, pressing the dollar lower.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
Informational content. Not investment advice.
