US dollar fundamentals
US dollar fundamentals – Week of Sep 20, 2026
Automatic weekly summary of the news that moves the dollar and the markets.
· 12 events
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)No data / neutral President Trump Speaks
Public statements by the Head of State that can influence political and fiscal expectations.
Reading for the dollar
Rhetoric on tariffs or public spending usually generates volatility; the lack of concrete data keeps the expectation neutral.
Economic calendar🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)No data / neutral Flash Manufacturing PMI
Index based on surveys of purchasing managers regarding the economic health of the industrial sector.
Reading for the dollar
A forecast of 53.6 suggests expansion; values above the estimate tend to strengthen the dollar.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|
| — | 53.6 | 53.2 |
Economic calendar🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)No data / neutral Flash Services PMI
Measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector, the largest in the US.
Reading for the dollar
A slight deceleration is expected compared to the previous data; a reading above 50 indicates sectoral growth.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|
| — | 55.8 | 56.8 |
Economic calendar🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bearish for the dollar Crude Oil Inventories
Measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms.
Reading for the dollar
The actual increase of 2.969M (against the expected drop) suggests lower energy demand, which is bearish for the dollar.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|
| 2.969M | -0.7M | -0.64M |
Economic calendar🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bullish for the dollar Unemployment Claims
Number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
Reading for the dollar
The 197K figure was better than expected (201K), indicating a strong labor market that favors the dollar.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|
| 197K | 201K | 198K |
Economic calendar🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bullish for the dollar New Home Sales
Measures the annualized number of new residential buildings sold during the previous month.
Reading for the dollar
The actual 0.684M figure significantly beat the forecast, reflecting vigor in the housing sector and support for the currency.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|
| 0.684M | 615K | 0.643M |
Economic calendar🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)No data / neutral President Trump Speaks
Second public intervention that can define the immediate course of economic policy.
Reading for the dollar
Any comments regarding inflation control or interest rates directly impact the dollar's valuation.
Economic calendar🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)No data / neutral President Trump Speaks
Evening intervention with potential impact for the opening of Asian markets.
Reading for the dollar
Political uncertainty during low liquidity hours can exacerbate dollar volatility.
Economic calendar🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bearish for the dollar Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Measures the change in the value of orders for long-lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation.
Reading for the dollar
The 0.3% figure was lower than the expected 0.6%, signaling a possible slowdown in business investment.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|
| 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
Economic calendar🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)No data / neutral Durable Goods Orders m/m
Measures the change in the total value of orders for long-lasting manufactured goods.
Reading for the dollar
Although the data was 0% (better than the -0.3% forecast), the drop from the previous 0.9% shows industrial weakness.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|
| 0% | -0.3% | 0.9% |
Economic calendar🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bullish for the dollar Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
Survey of consumer confidence regarding economic activity and personal finances.
Reading for the dollar
The 48.1 result beat the 47.4 forecast, suggesting higher-than-expected resilience in consumption.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|
| 48.1 | 47.4 | 51.7 |
Economic calendar🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)No data / neutral Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
Measures the percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change in the future.
Reading for the dollar
Rising expectations usually pressure the Fed to keep rates high, which favors the dollar.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|
| — | — | 4.6% |
Economic calendarInformational content. Not investment advice.