US dollar fundamentals

US dollar fundamentals – Week of Sep 20, 2026

Automatic weekly summary of the news that moves the dollar and the markets.

· 12 events

🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)No data / neutral

President Trump Speaks

Public statements by the Head of State that can influence political and fiscal expectations.

Reading for the dollar

Rhetoric on tariffs or public spending usually generates volatility; the lack of concrete data keeps the expectation neutral.

Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)No data / neutral

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Index based on surveys of purchasing managers regarding the economic health of the industrial sector.

Reading for the dollar

A forecast of 53.6 suggests expansion; values above the estimate tend to strengthen the dollar.

ActualForecastPrevious
—53.653.2
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)No data / neutral

Flash Services PMI

Measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector, the largest in the US.

Reading for the dollar

A slight deceleration is expected compared to the previous data; a reading above 50 indicates sectoral growth.

ActualForecastPrevious
—55.856.8
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bearish for the dollar

Crude Oil Inventories

Measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms.

Reading for the dollar

The actual increase of 2.969M (against the expected drop) suggests lower energy demand, which is bearish for the dollar.

ActualForecastPrevious
2.969M-0.7M-0.64M
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bullish for the dollar

Unemployment Claims

Number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

Reading for the dollar

The 197K figure was better than expected (201K), indicating a strong labor market that favors the dollar.

ActualForecastPrevious
197K201K198K
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bullish for the dollar

New Home Sales

Measures the annualized number of new residential buildings sold during the previous month.

Reading for the dollar

The actual 0.684M figure significantly beat the forecast, reflecting vigor in the housing sector and support for the currency.

ActualForecastPrevious
0.684M615K0.643M
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)No data / neutral

President Trump Speaks

Second public intervention that can define the immediate course of economic policy.

Reading for the dollar

Any comments regarding inflation control or interest rates directly impact the dollar's valuation.

Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)No data / neutral

President Trump Speaks

Evening intervention with potential impact for the opening of Asian markets.

Reading for the dollar

Political uncertainty during low liquidity hours can exacerbate dollar volatility.

Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bearish for the dollar

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

Measures the change in the value of orders for long-lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation.

Reading for the dollar

The 0.3% figure was lower than the expected 0.6%, signaling a possible slowdown in business investment.

ActualForecastPrevious
0.3%0.6%0.7%
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)No data / neutral

Durable Goods Orders m/m

Measures the change in the total value of orders for long-lasting manufactured goods.

Reading for the dollar

Although the data was 0% (better than the -0.3% forecast), the drop from the previous 0.9% shows industrial weakness.

ActualForecastPrevious
0%-0.3%0.9%
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)Bullish for the dollar

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Survey of consumer confidence regarding economic activity and personal finances.

Reading for the dollar

The 48.1 result beat the 47.4 forecast, suggesting higher-than-expected resilience in consumption.

ActualForecastPrevious
48.147.451.7
Economic calendar
🐂🐂🐂 High impact (3 bulls)No data / neutral

Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

Measures the percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change in the future.

Reading for the dollar

Rising expectations usually pressure the Fed to keep rates high, which favors the dollar.

ActualForecastPrevious
——4.6%
Economic calendar

Previous weeks

Informational content. Not investment advice.