Automatic weekly summary of the news that moves the dollar and the markets.
· 10 events
Statements by the head of the Treasury Department regarding fiscal policy and government debt management.
Reading for the dollar
Rhetoric on fiscal stability or dollar strength can generate volatility; as there are no numerical data, impact depends on the tone.
Measures the change in the value of retail sales, excluding automobiles due to their high volatility.
Reading for the dollar
The actual figure of 1.4% significantly beat the 0.6% forecast, indicating much robust domestic consumption than expected.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 1.4% | 0.6% | -0.2% |
Key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity in the US.
Reading for the dollar
The 1.2% result exceeded the expected 0.8%, suggesting economic resilience and possible demand-pull inflationary pressures.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 1.2% | 0.8% | -0.5% |
Measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms.
Reading for the dollar
The -0.64M drawdown was smaller than the -1.6M expected, implying weaker energy demand or supply excess relative to forecasts.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| -0.64M | -1.6M | -0.391M |
The interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds; it is the Fed's primary tool.
Reading for the dollar
The rate was set at 4.00%, matching the forecast; the increase from the previous 3.75% aims to cool the economy.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 4% | 4.00% | 3.75% |
Quarterly publication detailing Fed members' expectations for GDP, inflation, and unemployment.
Reading for the dollar
This report is crucial for understanding the future trajectory of interest rates and long-term economic health.
The primary tool the Committee uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy.
Reading for the dollar
The market parses every word for clues on future rate hikes or cuts; it directly influences dollar volatility.
Q&A session where the Fed Chair explains monetary policy decisions.
Reading for the dollar
A hawkish tone strengthens the dollar, while a cautious (dovish) tone tends to weaken it.
Survey of Philadelphia manufacturers regarding general business conditions and sector outlook.
Reading for the dollar
The 37.8 print beat the 31.3 forecast, indicating stronger manufacturing expansion than anticipated.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 37.8 | 31.3 | 47.4 |
Number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance benefits for the first time during the past week.
Reading for the dollar
The 196K figure was lower than the 207K expected, reflecting an extremely tight and solid labor market.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 196K | 207K | 206K |
Informational content. Not investment advice.
