Automatic weekly summary of the news that moves the dollar and the markets.
· 13 events
Public holiday in the United States: US markets are closed or trade on a shortened schedule.
Reading for the dollar
With fewer participants, the dollar (DXY) usually barely moves and liquidity is thin; any moves can be erratic and unreliable.
Public statements that may provide clues about future fiscal, trade, or diplomatic policies.
Reading for the dollar
Interpretation depends on the tone regarding tariffs or spending; protectionist rhetoric often strengthens the dollar, while uncertainty weakens it.
Measures the change in the selling price of producers, excluding food and energy to identify persistent inflationary trends.
Reading for the dollar
The actual figure (0.2%) was lower than expected (0.3%), suggesting lower inflationary pressures from the supply chain.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
A leading indicator of consumer inflation that measures the change in the price of goods at the wholesale level.
Reading for the dollar
The actual figure (0.4%) matched the forecast, indicating that production costs remain firm, which is neutral for the currency.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Reports the number of individuals who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week.
Reading for the dollar
The figure (206K) was slightly higher than expected (205K) but lower than the previous one, indicating a labor market that remains robust.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 206K | 205K | 207K |
Measures the annualized number of residential buildings sold during the previous month, reflecting the health of the real estate sector.
Reading for the dollar
The actual figure (3.98M) met the forecast but fell compared to the previous month, suggesting a cooling in housing demand.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 3.98M | 3.98M | 4.06M |
Measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms.
Reading for the dollar
An unexpected increase in inventories usually puts downward pressure on crude prices, which can indirectly influence inflation and the USD.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| -0.391M | -1.4M | -4.45M |
Measures changes in the prices of goods and services, excluding food and energy to obtain a clear view of underlying inflation.
Reading for the dollar
0.2% is expected; a higher reading would strengthen the dollar by increasing the odds of higher interest rates.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Measures the variation in consumer prices over the last 12 months, excluding the most volatile components.
Reading for the dollar
The market expects a reduction to 2.4%; a figure below this could weaken the dollar on expectations of looser monetary policy.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% |
Measures the overall monthly inflation rate, including all components of the consumer basket.
Reading for the dollar
The 0.4% forecast is significantly higher than the previous 0.1%, which if met, would show a short-term inflationary uptick.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Represents the change in consumer prices compared to the same month of the previous year; it is the key figure for the Fed.
Reading for the dollar
A 3.4% projection exists; if the data exceeds this figure, the dollar could react upward due to the need for restrictive rates.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
Shows consumer confidence in economic activity, which directly influences future spending.
Reading for the dollar
A predicted drop to 51.0 from 51.7 indicates pessimism, which is typically negative for the currency due to potential consumption slowdown.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| — | 51.0 | 51.7 |
Measures the percentage consumers expect the price of goods and services to change over the next 12 months.
Reading for the dollar
If consumers expect high inflation, it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, pressuring the Fed to act.
| Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| — | — | 4.3% |
Informational content. Not investment advice.
