Short market notes, updates and comments from the GRANDIR CM team.
β οΈ ATTENTION TRADERS: HIGH IMPACT NEWS
This Friday, October 02, 2026, starting at 6:30 a. m. Costa Rica time, we will have high impact economic news that could generate strong movements and high volatility in the market.
If you already have open trades, it is important to protect and secure your positions, manage risk correctly, and avoid leaving trades unnecessarily exposed.
During the release of high impact news, we recommend avoiding trading in the middle of the movement, as rapid impulses, wider spreads, and sharp changes in direction may occur.
π Remember: a good strategy consists not only of knowing when to enter, but also knowing when to wait.
From GRANDIR CM we recommend taking precautions, respecting risk management, and waiting for the market to show a clearer direction after the news.
Weekly Gold Analysis | XAU/USD
Gold has experienced a week of high volatility, initially marked by strong selling pressure that took the price from the $4,280 zone down to approximately $4,110.
The movement was primarily driven by the strengthening of the dollar, the rise in Treasury bond yields, and changes in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rates.
Subsequently, XAU/USD found buyers in the $4,110β$4,140 zone, initiating a recovery towards $4,200.
Key Levels
Supports: $4,140 β $4,110 β $4,100
Resistances: $4,200 β $4,220 β $4,275/$4,300
As long as the price maintains the support zone, it could continue trying to regain ground. A solid breakout above $4,220 would strengthen the short-term buying structure, while losing $4,100 could provide continuity to the correction.
Our Perspective
This week demonstrates once again the importance of trading in favor of the trend and not trying to anticipate the market.
When we combine market direction with our strategy, we seek to increase the probability of executing favorable trades and, when the movement develops in our favor, take advantage of price extensions to maximize the potential of each operation.
It is not about entering the market more often, but about selecting better opportunities and knowing how to capitalize on movements when they appear.
Analysis for educational purposes. Does not constitute financial advice.
π‘ XAUUSD | Technical analysis
On the daily timeframe, Gold remains within a corrective structure, while on H1 the price is located in a significant decision zone. Today's bearish pressure also coincides with a pullback in gold toward the $4,345 area. οΏΌ
Currently, we are trading around 4,340β4,350, a zone that coincides with our Volume Profile POC and that we are considering as important support. This same area appears as immediate support in other recent technical analyses. οΏΌ
We are waiting for confirmation:
β’ π» If the price breaks and confirms below 4,330β4,340, we could start looking for selling opportunities, with the next support zone being 4,300β4,320. A bearish extension could subsequently lead us toward 4,260β4,280.
β’ πΊ If support holds and we see rejection/bullish confirmation, we could consider buys seeking the 4,380β4,400 zones again and subsequently 4,430β4,440. οΏΌ
For now, we are not looking to anticipate the move. The most important thing will be to observe the price reaction at the POC and wait for confirmation before executing.
Remember to trade in favor of the trend, respect risk management, and execute only when our strategy's confirmations are met.
GOLD: STARTING THE WEEK
Gold is currently trading around $4,370, staying within a narrow range and with moderate volatility.
Our first scenario will be to observe possible buying opportunities near $4,350. If the correction continues, the next area of interest is between $4,320 and $4,300, where a buying reaction could appear.
In the bullish scenario, we will pay attention to the price behavior between $4,400 and $4,420. If the market loses momentum or shows clear signs of rejection in that region, a lower exposure sell could be evaluated.
Conversely, a solid breakout of $4,420, accompanied by a consolidation above that level, would weaken the bearish scenario and increase the probability of a continuation to the upside.
The most prudent approach will be to wait for confirmations before opening a position and avoid anticipating the market movement. πΈππ₯
Fed Decision: A Key Day for the MarketsπΈ
This Wednesday, September 16, the United States Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates. The statement will be released at 12:00 p.m. in Costa Rica, followed by the Fed Chair's press conference at 12:30 p.m.
The market mostly expects a 25 basis point hike, as inflation remains above the 2% target and the U.S. economy maintains certain strength. For this reason, the initial move may depend less on the hike itself (which would already be partially priced in) and more on the message regarding upcoming decisions.
Possible impact on Gold π₯π€―
Gold is trading higher ahead of the announcement, near $4,350, as investors await new signals on the direction of monetary policy.
These are the main scenarios:
* Rate hike with a hawkish message: If the Fed warns that more hikes will be necessary to control inflation, the dollar and bond yields could strengthen. This scenario could generate downward pressure on gold.
* Rate hike with a dovish message: If the Fed raises rates but leaves the door open for a potential pause soon, gold could recover after the initial volatility.
* Rates unchanged: This would be a surprise compared to current expectations. The dollar could weaken and gold could react to the upside, though the move will depend on the explanation offered by the Fed.
What should we watch?
The reaction of the first candle will not necessarily mark the definitive direction. The market will have to process three elements:
1. The decision on rates.
2. The new economic and inflation projections.
3. The tone of the press conference.
During this type of news, sharp moves, liquidity sweeps, and rapid changes in direction can occur. The most prudent approach is to avoid entering impulsively.
GOLD UPDATE πΈ
Following the publication of the #CPI data, gold initially reacted downwards but managed to recover quickly. The limited impact of the data can be interpreted as a favorable sign for the metal.
In the short term, gold's structure has shifted to bullish, with possible targets in the 4480β4500 zone. For now, it would be prudent to reduce sell trades and wait for a pullback before considering new buy positions.
Due to the rapid price advance, we will be watching two important support zones:
β’ 4330β4340 as immediate support.
β’ 4290β4300 as a lower support zone.
Although the general scenario remains bullish, a correction during the US session cannot be ruled out. The most important thing will be to wait for confirmations and avoid entering the market impulsively.
Trade with caution, manage risk correctly, and remember to follow the trend.
β οΈ Pay attention to this week's fundamentals
This Thursday and Friday we will have several important economic news items that could generate strong movements and increased market volatility.
ππ πReminder: news marked with 3 bulls represent high-impact events, so we recommend paying special attention before, during, and after their publication.
At these times, risk management is key: avoid impulsive entries, adjust your strategy, and remember that being in the market is not always the best decision.
Staying informed is also part of trading. π
π Gold Analysis (XAU/USD) β 4H Scenario
Today, Monday, September 7, was a holiday in the United States for Labor Day, so we must keep in mind that liquidity and market behavior may differ from a normal session.
In this analysis, we are viewing Gold in the 4-hour (4H) timeframe. This timeframe allows us to have a broader view of the market structure and, above all, to identify the important zones where the price could react.
Currently, we have an important zone around 4,460β4,480, which we consider a decision level for the next move.
Our idea is not to guess what the price will do, but to wait for it to reach these zones and subsequently move down to M5 to look for an entry confirmation using our Volume Profile and our trading strategy.
π΄ Scenario 1 β Breakout of the important zone
If the price manages to break through the 4,460β4,480 zone with strength, the sell scenario would be discarded.
In this case, we would wait for a price correction after the breakout and, if our Volume Profile and our strategy give us confirmation in M5, we would look for a buy entry.
The next important objective we have marked is approximately at 4,680β4,700.
Breakout β correction β M5 confirmation β buy.
βΈ»
π΄ Scenario 2 β Rejection of the important zone
This is one of the scenarios we must monitor especially closely.
If the price reaches our 4,460β4,480 zone again but fails to break it with strength and begins to show rejection, we could look for a sell opportunity, as long as our strategy confirms the entry in M5.
In this scenario, the price could continue its movement towards the lower zones we have marked on the chart.
Arrival at zone β rejection β M5 confirmation β sell.
βΈ»
π’ Scenario 3 β Bearish continuation from current levels
We must also consider
XAUUSD | GOLD π‘
Trump's recent statements have generated significant changes in market behavior and have sparked new movements in gold.
However, from our perspective and according to our current analysis, the general scenario continues to maintain a bearish bias.
π Key zone: 4450β4460
As long as the price remains below this resistance zone, we will continue to watch for possible selling opportunities, always waiting for the corresponding confirmations according to our strategy before taking a position.
Recommendation for the market close
As we approach the weekly close, we recommend special caution. If you have open sell trades that are currently in profit, consider securing those positions partially or totally before the close, or managing risk appropriately, bearing in mind that news may emerge over the weekend capable of causing sharp movements or gaps at the reopening.
For the market opening on Sunday, we will again be monitoring the price reaction around the aforementioned zones. It is not about automatically entering a sell, but about observing what gold does, waiting for confirmations, and determining if our strategy continues to support the bearish scenario.
It will also be important to broaden the analysis toward higher timeframes, identifying the main market structure and trend. This will allow us to have greater context and avoid making decisions based solely on short-term movements.
Our approach: analyze β wait for confirmation β manage risk β execute.
β οΈ This content represents solely our perspective and market analysis. It does not constitute financial advice nor does it guarantee results. Each trader must conduct their own analysis and manage their risk appropriately.
For #gold, short-term resistance is at 4400-4380, with strong resistance at 4450. Short-term support is at 4320, and strong support is at 4300; a break below these levels points to 4250-4200.
Conservative traders can wait until the price reaches 4380-4400 to sell, while aggressive traders can look to buy in the 4320-4300 range.
π₯ OFFICIAL: US ADVANCES IN CRYPTO REGULATION πΊπΈ
Patrick Witt, a White House official, assured that there is a βtotal commitmentβ to achieving the passage of the Crypto Clarity Act next month. π
A step that could be key to the future of cryptocurrency regulation in the United States. π
WELCOME TO GRANDIR CM
It has been a long journey, but deeply satisfying to see what we dreamed of for so long become a reality. Today, it fills us with joy to be able to share our project with you and open this door to reach more people, accompany them, and offer all the help possible.
This is just the beginning. Thank you for being here and being part of this new chapter.